Navigating the Edge: China's Short-of-War Coercion Campaign Against Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands

Amid rising Taiwan Strait tensions, China intensifies its short-of-war tactics over Kinmen, testing the resolve of Taipei and its international allies.

In the rapidly intensifying geopolitical landscape of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen Islands have emerged as a critical flashpoint. Since February 2024, the China has significantly escalated its efforts to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty over these strategically important islands. Beijing’s actions, while stopping short of full-scale war, represent a sophisticated campaign of coercion designed to gradually force Taiwan into ceding control of Kinmen. According to a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War, authored by Matthew Sperzel and Daniel Shats, in collaboration with Alexis Turek from the American Enterprise Institute, China's short-of-war coercion campaign against Taiwan's Kinmen Islands poses significant risks to regional stability, Taiwan's sovereignty and the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. This explainer takes a cursory look at the report.

China’s coercion campaign against Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands represents a serious escalation in cross-strait tensions. While it falls short of outright war, its success could fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region, undermine U.S. influence, and embolden further Chinese aggression. To counter this threat, a robust, coordinated response from the United States, Taiwan, and their allies is essential. This response must blend military, economic, and informational strategies to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait, and ensure the continued credibility of U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.

China’s Escalating Strategy

Beijing’s strategy toward Kinmen is multi-faceted, involving a combination of maritime incursions, economic pressure, legal and propaganda warfare, and targeted provocations designed to test Taiwan’s military response. These actions form a comprehensive coercion campaign aimed at weakening Taiwan’s hold over Kinmen and setting the stage for a possible seizure of the islands.

One of the most overt aspects of this campaign has been the marked increase in Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) incursions into the waters surrounding Kinmen. Since February 2024, these incursions have become routine, with CCG vessels regularly entering Taiwan’s designated "restricted" and "prohibited" waters under the pretext of law enforcement patrols. Beijing’s goal is to normalize its presence in these waters, thereby undermining Taiwan’s de facto control and gradually eroding its sovereignty.

Simultaneously, China is also leveraging economic integration as a tool of influence, particularly through the Fujian Cross-Strait Integration Zone initiative. This initiative aims to deepen economic ties between Kinmen and the mainland, fostering a dependency that could weaken political loyalty to Taipei. Key projects, such as the proposed Xiamen–Kinmen bridge, have garnered support within Kinmen, despite strong opposition from Taiwan’s central government, which views such infrastructure as a potential conduit for Chinese influence and control.

Beijing is also intensifying its use of legal and propaganda warfare. Following a February 14, 2024, incident in which a CCG vessel collided with a Taiwanese fishing boat, resulting in the deaths of two Chinese fishermen, Beijing has ramped up its rhetorical and legal claims over Kinmen. Chinese state-controlled media have used the incident to justify increased patrols and to deny the legitimacy of Taiwan’s claims over the surrounding waters. This narrative has been amplified by Chinese officials who frame Taiwan’s actions as aggressive and unlawful, thus providing a pretext for further encroachments.

In addition to these measures, China has begun testing Taiwan’s military defenses, particularly through aerial incursions by both military and civilian drones. These incursions serve multiple purposes: they test Taiwan’s response capabilities, create psychological pressure on the Kinmen population, and further challenge Taiwan’s control over the islands. Beijing’s actions are designed to probe Taiwan’s red lines and readiness, gradually increasing the pressure without triggering a full-scale military confrontation.

Perhaps the most concerning potential escalation is the imposition of a de facto quarantine around Kinmen by Beijing. Such a quarantine would involve the CCG blocking or severely restricting the movement of Taiwanese government and civilian vessels to and from Kinmen. This could be coupled with cyberattacks or physical sabotage of communication infrastructure, further isolating the islands and increasing the economic and psychological pressure on the local population. China’s objective would be to force Taiwan into making concessions, potentially including the demilitarization of Kinmen, which would mark a significant step toward Beijing’s control.

Strategic Implications

Beijing's strategy extends beyond the immediate goal of seizing Kinmen. A successful coercion campaign would have profound implications for Taiwan’s overall defense posture, the credibility of U.S. security guarantees, and the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

For Taiwan, the loss of Kinmen would be a devastating blow to national morale and political stability. It would likely trigger a crisis of confidence in the government’s ability to defend Taiwan, potentially leading to political upheaval. This could manifest in a no-confidence motion against President Lai Ching-te or a broader shift in Taiwan’s political landscape towards more conciliatory policies toward Beijing. The psychological impact on the Taiwanese military and society would be severe, as the loss of territory without a fight would undermine confidence in Taiwan’s ability to resist further Chinese aggression.

For the United States, China’s actions represent a direct challenge to the credibility of its commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). While Kinmen is not explicitly covered by the TRA, the loss of the islands would significantly weaken U.S. deterrence in the region. It would also send a worrying signal to other U.S. allies, such as Japan and South Korea, about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. A failure to respond effectively to the Chinese coercion could lead to a broader erosion of U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific and embolden Beijing to pursue further aggressive actions, including a possible full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

Recommendations

The ISW report offer three key recommendations. The report says that to counter the China’s coercive tactics, the United States, Taiwan, and their allies must develop a comprehensive and coordinated strategy that includes pre-emptive measures, reactive responses, and long-term policies to deter future aggression.

Pre-emptively, Taiwan must prioritize strengthening the communication infrastructure on Kinmen to counter potential Chinese sabotage. This could involve enhancing redundancy through satellite communications to ensure the islands remain connected even in the face of physical or cyber disruptions. Furthermore, selective intelligence disclosures by the United States and Taiwan could help preemptively expose Chinese intentions and disrupt Beijing’s narratives, making it harder for China to justify its actions to the international community.

On the ground, Taiwan should significantly increase its Coast Guard presence around Kinmen to assert control over its maritime boundaries and deter Chinese incursions. This increased presence should be coupled with targeted information campaigns aimed at the Kinmen populace, highlighting the risks of China’s control and using the example of Hong Kong to illustrate the potential consequences of falling under Beijing’s influence.

In the event of a Chinese quarantine or blockade of Kinmen, the United States and its allies should be prepared to impose targeted economic sanctions, particularly on entities connected to the China’s maritime activities. Such sanctions would increase the economic costs to Beijing of its coercive actions and serve as a deterrent to further escalations. Additionally, the United States and its allies could conduct joint military exercises in the Taiwan Strait as a show of force, signaling their commitment to defending Taiwan and maintaining regional stability.

In the long term, the U.S. Congress should consider amending the Taiwan Relations Act to explicitly include protection for Taiwan’s outlying islands, thereby closing a critical loophole in the U.S. defense posture in the region. Moreover, the United States should expand its military presence in Taiwan and increase joint exercises, particularly those focused on defending Taiwan’s outer islands. Such measures would not only enhance Taiwan’s defensive capabilities but also send a clear message to Beijing about the United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s security.

In an era of increasingly complex and hybrid threats, the Kinmen Islands stand as a crucial test case for the resilience of Taiwan’s defenses and the strength of U.S. commitments in the region. The outcome of this coercion campaign will have lasting implications, not just for Taiwan, but for the entire international order in the Indo-Pacific region.