Confronting China's Maritime Ambitions: Why the World Must Act Now

The Sabina Shoal incident highlights the international community's failure to curb Beijing's maritime expansionism

The recent collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels at Sabina Shoal is not merely an isolated maritime skirmish. It is a stark reminder of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea and underscores the urgent need for the international community to find concrete and effective ways to restrain China's aggressive behavior in the region. The Sabina Shoal incident, which saw Chinese coast guard vessels deliberately ram Philippine ships, is symptomatic of a broader pattern of Beijing's unchecked assertiveness, one that threatens not only regional stability but also the principles of international law.

Sabina Shoal: A New Flashpoint

On August 19, 2024, Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided at Sabina Shoal, a contested maritime feature in the Spratly Islands. This incident, which left a Philippine ship damaged, represents a significant escalation in the ongoing territorial disputes between the two nations. Sabina Shoal, located just 86 miles from the Philippine island of Palawan, is much closer to Philippine territory than to any part of mainland China. Yet, Beijing's actions suggest an unyielding ambition to assert control over this and other features in the South China Sea, regardless of proximity or international norms.

China’s official narrative predictably blamed the Philippines for the collision, accusing the Philippine vessel of unprofessional conduct. However, this version of events has been strongly contested by Philippine authorities, who described the collision as a direct result of China's "unlawful and aggressive maneuvers." The incident marks a disturbing development in the South China Sea, a region already fraught with tension due to overlapping territorial claims.

China's Unrelenting Maritime Assertiveness

The Sabina Shoal incident is part of a broader strategy by China to gradually expand its control over the South China Sea. Despite previous agreements to de-escalate tensions, such as the one concerning the Second Thomas Shoal, Beijing remains undeterred in its ambitions. The strategic importance of the South China Sea cannot be overstated—this waterway is vital for global trade, and it holds significant potential for resource extraction. China's nine-dash line, a demarcation it uses to justify its expansive claims, has been widely dismissed by international legal bodies, including the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016. Yet, Beijing continues to pursue its claims with a combination of legal obfuscation and outright force.

In recent years, China's strategy has evolved from building artificial islands and militarizing them to direct confrontations with vessels from other claimant states. The repeated ramming and harassment of Philippine ships are not isolated acts but part of a calculated approach to create a fait accompli in the South China Sea. By constantly testing the resolve of its neighbors and the international community, Beijing is betting that it can establish de facto control over these waters without triggering a full-scale military conflict.

This pattern of behavior is not limited to the Philippines. Vietnam has repeatedly clashed with Chinese vessels near the Paracel Islands, where China has built military installations and enforced fishing bans. In 2019, a Chinese oil survey vessel, escorted by coast guard ships, spent months in Vietnamese waters, leading to a tense standoff. Similarly, Malaysia has faced incursions by Chinese vessels into its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), particularly around the Luconia Shoals. These incidents highlight a consistent and escalating strategy by China to assert dominance over the South China Sea, often at the expense of its smaller neighbors.

Role of the United States and Its Allies

The Philippines has found itself on the front lines of this confrontation, and its response is critical not only for its own sovereignty but also for the broader balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has moved closer to the United States, a shift that reflects the growing recognition in Manila that it cannot face Chinese aggression alone. The revival of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, highlighted by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), is a step in the right direction. However, bilateral military agreements alone will not suffice to counter China's expansive ambitions.

The international community, particularly key players like the United States, Japan, Australia, and the European Union, must recognize that China's actions in the South China Sea are not merely a regional issue—they are a direct challenge to the rules-based international order. The United States has taken some steps, such as conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and increasing military cooperation with regional allies. Yet, these measures have thus far failed to deter Beijing. The Sabina Shoal incident illustrates that China remains emboldened, sensing that the costs of its actions remain low.

Need for a Unified International Response

The international community must respond to China’s aggression with a unified and strategic approach. This requires not only diplomatic condemnation but also tangible measures that increase the costs of China's behavior. One such measure could be the imposition of targeted economic sanctions on Chinese entities involved in the construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea. Additionally, multilateral naval patrols in the region, involving a coalition of willing states, could serve as a deterrent against further Chinese encroachments.

Furthermore, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), despite its historical hesitance to confront China directly, must play a more proactive role. While ASEAN's consensus-driven approach often leads to inaction, the Sabina Shoal incident should serve as a wake-up call for the region. A more robust and united ASEAN stance, possibly through a legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, would send a clear message to Beijing that its actions are unacceptable.

Urgency of Action

The collision at Sabina Shoal is a stark reminder that China’s aggression in the South China Sea is not a distant concern but an immediate threat to regional peace and stability. If the international community fails to act decisively, it risks emboldening China to continue its pattern of coercion and aggression across the region. Similar incidents involving Vietnam, Malaysia, and other claimants in the South China Sea have demonstrated that this is not merely a bilateral issue but a challenge to the entire region.

The stakes extend beyond the South China Sea, touching on the integrity of international law and the broader principles that underpin global order. The international community must come together to develop a coherent strategy that not only addresses the immediate threats posed by China's actions but also establishes a framework for long-term peace and stability in one of the world's most strategically important regions.